The survey, conducted by longtime Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, has Democrat Coakley, the state attorney general, leading state Republican Sen. Scott Brown 50 percent to 36 percent.
Sounds bad for Scott Brown, right?
Maybe not so much. Check out the sample Mark Mellman used according to the story:
Maybe not so much. Check out the sample Mark Mellman used according to the story:
Mellman surveyed 800 likely voters on Jan. 8-10. His sample included 49 percent self-identified Democrats, 25 percent independents and 24 percent Republicans.
These numbers wildly overstate the proportion of Democrats and wildly understate the portion of Republicans in Massachusetts. Registered undeclared voters actually comprise over 50% of the electorate in Massachusetts. Democrats only constitute 36%. According to many polls, Brown holds a commanding lead over Coakley with independents. If Coakley is only getting to 50% with sample numbers that favor her so heavily, Brown must be very competitive indeed.
There are at least two possibilities here. One is that Mellman is using a turnout model that deliberately discounts independents, assuming that they won't show up to the polls. However, enthusiasm seems to be pulling along Brown's campaign. Can he whip up independent enthusiasm? He better hope so.
Another possibility, quite compatible with the first, is that this leak is meant to dispirit Republicans and Brown-friendly independents in Massachusetts. And if they don't go to vote (and get their friends, neighbors, and relatives to vote), Coakley will certainly win.
UPDATE: Welcome Campaign Spot and Gateway Pundit readers! You might also like this imaginary speech delivered by a Republican candidate for Senate in Massachusetts.
There are at least two possibilities here. One is that Mellman is using a turnout model that deliberately discounts independents, assuming that they won't show up to the polls. However, enthusiasm seems to be pulling along Brown's campaign. Can he whip up independent enthusiasm? He better hope so.
Another possibility, quite compatible with the first, is that this leak is meant to dispirit Republicans and Brown-friendly independents in Massachusetts. And if they don't go to vote (and get their friends, neighbors, and relatives to vote), Coakley will certainly win.
UPDATE: Welcome Campaign Spot and Gateway Pundit readers! You might also like this imaginary speech delivered by a Republican candidate for Senate in Massachusetts.
