Next Stop: the House?

Though some of Brown's supporters are already champing at the "Kerry, You're Next" bit, Massachusetts Republican politicos have a challenge that is much closer: the House elections in November. Scott Brown's margin of victory put many towns across the state in the Republican column, and it looks like many Congressional Districts voted for the Republican. Jeffmd did some number-crunching over at the Swing State Project, and here's what he got (a few cities straddling a couple districts are not figured into the totals, but this absence should not affect the districts where Brown was the certain winner):

CD	Coakley	Brown	Coakley%	Brown%
1	107,665	103,561	50.97%	49.03%
2	89,493	121,799	42.36%	57.64%
3	82,588	121,627	40.44%	59.56%
4	108,079	110,323	49.49%	50.51%
5	91,585	121,594	42.96%	57.04%
6	104,787	144,168	42.09%	57.91%
7	118,283	101,739	53.76%	46.24%
8	46,795	11,884	79.75%	20.25%
9	76,164	101,140	42.96%	57.04%
10	109,489	163,812	40.06%	59.94%
3, 4	10,341	7,489	58.00%	42.00%
5, 7	3,597	2,915	55.24%	44.76%
8, 9	105,289	46,468	69.38%	30.62%
9, 10	1,254	3,067	29.02%	70.98%

Coakley Wins: 1st, 7th, 8th
Uncertain, but likely Brown wins: 4th, 9th
Brown Wins: 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 10th

This analysis gives Republicans at least 5 districts where Brown was the clear winner. The lucky Democrats are Richard Neal (2nd), Jim McGovern (3rd), Niki Tsongas (5th), John Tierney (6th), and Bill Delahunt (10th). Up until 1997, the 3rd and the 6th districts were represented by Republicans, so those might be the most likely to flip, but Brown won all of these districts with support in the high 50's, topping out at nearly 60% in the 10th District.

The fact that this is a special election should not, as it might in other years, give much comfort to Democratic incumbents. 54% of registered voters turned out for this election. Turnout in Massachusetts in 2006 was 56%, so the numbers for this election are not too much off from the preceding off-year Congressional elections; this election is a fairly close approximation (probably) of what the midterm electorate could look like in Massachusetts.

Don't be surprised if you see some of these Democrats swinging towards the middle over the next ten months. And (will wonders never cease!) here comes Bill Delahunt of the 10th saying that Democrats should "carve up" the health-care bill and pass its most popular portions! He even hopes for a "bipartisan" bill!

Don't also be surprised if the Massachusetts GOP and the RNC start quietly polling to see which incumbents could be vulnerable and trying to recruit worthy Republican challengers for the races in the fall.