Monday, September 20, 2010

Regaining the Center in Washington State

SurveyUSA has two polls that suggest some possible pick-up opportunities for the GOP in Washington.

In WA-03, Republican Jaime Herrera leads Democrat Danny Heck by nine points (52-43) in the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Brian Baird. Herrera's numbers have been slipping a little bit, though, so she'll have to keep fighting for that seat to ensure a win on election day. A multicultural coalition backs Herrera; it remains to be seen if this coalition can hold together for a win.

WA-09 has some surprisingly good news for the GOP: Republican Dick Muri lags only three points behind 14-year incumbent Democrat Adam Smith (46-49). Prior to this poll, many analysts had ranked this as a "safe" Democratic seat. Muri's lagging big-time in fund-raising; a little cash might tip the race in his favor.

If WA-09 is starting to swing the GOP's way, it could have implications for the closely-contested Washington Senate race. These numbers might also be a sign of further deterioration---even in previously safe districts---of the Democratic brand. If these challengers can pull off these victories and Washington's three Republican incumbent representatives can hold on to their seats, the GOP stands to capture the majority of Washington's House districts.

No comments:

Post a Comment