Sunday, February 28, 2010

Whipping the House Vote

These House Democrats are worth watching on health-care. They voted in favor of the House version last year, which passed 220-215. Below, I've listed the Democrats representing districts McCain won in 2008 as well as some Democrats in Obama-won districts who might be open to switching to vote against Obamacare. The allies of reform moderation may only need to pick up a few of these votes to succeed.

I very much emphasize that this is a work in progress. If you have any other names to recommend or corrections or suggestions about new developments or arguments, please send me an email (probably the best way to get noticed) or post info. in the comments.

The data comes from CQ's invaluable 2008 election atlas; the ratings for various races in the notes are also often borrowed from CQ. The New York Times has a list of House Democrats who voted against the bill last year.

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty passes along this list of possible vote switches (from yes to no and from no to yes). Meanwhile, some speculate that Pelosi may be able to flip 10 or so "no" votes, or at least they're sitting on the fence...

3/7 UPDATE: The Weekly Standard notes at least two other potential yes-to-no switchers in the House: Dan Lipinski (D-IL) and Jim Oberstar (D-MN). Both have said they will not vote for a health-care bill with federal funding for abortion.

Key: After the name and district, the numbers are in the following order: Winning margin in 2008; McCain-Obama percentages; Year first elected. Districts Obama won are in italics. This list is sort of in the order of most likely to switch to least likely to switch, but it's not too serious.


Michael Arcuri (NY-24) 52% 48-50 06
Note: This district has a Republican lean, and Arcuri, a political moderate, is pushing for a more focused reform. 3/3: Arcuri has now said that he will very likely vote against the Senate bill on the House floor.

Tom Perriello (VA-05) 50% 51-48 08
Note: This race was a squeaker in 08 in a state that's now swung hard away from the Democrats. He now seems to be trying to edge towards voting for a bill even if it does have abortion coverage. But will he want to take that electoral risk?

Mark Schauer (MI-7) 49% 46-52 08
Note: This race is rated a toss-up and could be a tough battle for this freshman. Voting "yes" on health-care reform might make this battle even harder.


Zack Space (OH-18) 60% 53-45 06
Note: Space has been very vocal in his opposition to the Senate version of health-care, and seems to be keeping silent on Obama's proposal. From a Republican-leaning district, Space got into the House in part due to disgust with the corruption of his Republican predecessor.

Steve Driehaus (OH-1) 53% 44-55 06
Note: This district seems to be trending in the direction of the Democrats, but Driehaus is pushing for
stronger anti-abortion language.

Baron Hill (IN-9) 50% 50-46 06
Note: This district has swung between R and D Representatives over the past decade. It tilts Republican; this race is rated Lean D. It could be a close one.

Gary Peters (MI-9) 52% 48-52 08
Note: This district swung from a slight R advantage to a strong showing for Obama in 2008. 2010 might tell a different story and hurt Peters' reelection chances. Peters is in many ways a moderate, so it might be to his advantage to take a stand for a more moderate bill.

Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3) 51% 49-49 08
Note: Tight race in 08. Rated Lean D. Dehlkemper's talking up her opposition to abortion.

Earl Pomeroy (ND-At Large) 62% 53-45 92
Note: Obamacare is wildly unpopular in North Dakota, and Pomeroy voted against the bill on the Ways and Means Committee. The pressure on him must be considerable from leadership, and he's buckled before.

Brad Ellsworth (IN-8) 65% 51-47 06
Note: Ellsworth's running for Senate. A tough "yes" on health-care might not help him electorally.

Dennis Cardozo (CA-18) 100% 39-59 02
Note: This district voted for George W. Bush in 2004 and could be a little swing-y. Cardozo has expressed significant reservations about Obama's proposal.

Bart Stupak (MI-1) 65% 48-50 92
Note: Stupak is the author of the anti-abortion language in the House bill. Without that, he may follow through on his threats and abandon support of the measure.

Charlie Wilson (OH-6) 62% 50-48 06
Note: McCain won this district, but it has a long tradition of voting for Democrats in the House. Wilson has expressed limited enthusiasm for Obama's plan.

Anne Kirkpatrick (AZ-1) 55% 54-44 08
Note:This is rated as an R+6 district. R predecessor indicted. Voter alienation may not carry over into 2010.

Vic Snyder (AR-2) 76% 54-44 96
Note: Snyder's retiring; his seat is rated Lean Republican. This retirement may make him feel immune to voter displeasure in Arkansas.

Marion Berry (AR-1) 100% 59-38 96
Note: A staunch Blue Dog, Berry is retiring at the end of his term. He's angry with Pelosi for the position she's put the BD's in. Will he reward her with a "yes" vote this time?

John Spratt (SC-05) 61% 53-46 82
Note: Spratt's a survivor, but his race in 2010 is looking increasingly competitive. Voting all the time with Pelosi and the House leadership might not endear Spratt to his SC constituents.

Dina Titus (NV-3) 47% 43-55 08
Note: Titus won a fairly close election in 2008, and this year could also be a challenge for her. Still, she seems to be
stepping away from her earlier objections to aspects of the health-care bill.

Chris Carney (PA-10) 56% 54-45 06
Note: R district, but Carney's a formidable candidate. He might feel he can take the heat from a "yes" vote.

Nick Rahall (WV-3) 67% 56-42 76
Note: Rahall and fellow WV Democrat Mollohan have right-leaning districts but seem personally very popular. Still, could this bill drive voters to abandon him?

Alan Mohollan (WV-2) 99% 57-42 82
Note: See Rahall above. Mohollan's seat may not be quite as safe.

John Salazar (CO-3) 61% 50-48 04
Note: Salazar's district has a strong Republican bias, but he's been able to overcome that in the past. He seems a pretty strong backer of health-care reform.

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