Sunday, February 21, 2010

Murray Vulnerable?

Eighteen-year Senate incumbent Patty Murray (D-Washington) might find her name beginning to rise in the list of endangered Senate seats. A Rasmussen poll shows her lagging behind possible Republican challenger Dino Rossi, who lost the 2004 gubernatorial race in Washington by a razor-thin margin and also ran for governor in 2008. A newly released SurveyUSA poll shows Murray with a 43-50 approval rating, dangerous territory for an incumbent. 61% of independents disapprove of her job performance. Will voting to push through Obamacare via the reconciliation process endear her to them?

UPDATE: A lot of commenters have replied with some skepticism about the prospects of Murray losing this seat. This skepticism is not completely unjustified; it's not for nothing that the Cook Political Report calls this race Solid Democrat. However, the political landscape is being shaken up day by day. I'm sure many would have rated the Massachusetts Senate race a Solid Democrat race in November 2009. The reductio ad Scott Brown may increasingly sound hackneyed, but there is an element of truth to it. As another commenter pointed out, candidate recruitment would be crucial. Based on Murray's current polling (and her approval rating has fallen about ten points from a year ago), the right Republican candidate could certainly make a strong go of it. Washington did, after all, have a Republican Senator as recently as 2001. So a Republican victory could be a possibility, one that seems to be growing stronger.

24 comments:

  1. I wish this was true but it isn't. I live in WA state. I won't vote for Patty Murray but everyone I know probably will. While Dino Rossi lost a razor close race for governor in 2004 it wasn't razor close when he tried again against the same opponent in 2008. So far Patty Murray has no organized opposition (Rossi has not expressed interest). The Republican party is dead in the Western portion of WA state, the part where most of the population is.

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  2. Ha, if the election is close then we'll see votes for Murray miraculously found in car trunks, cargo containers, the bottom of Puget Sound, closets, dumpsters, etc.

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  3. I am also a WA resident. The Democrats are really screwing themselves up here.

    The Legislature just voted to set aside a super-majority requirement for tax increases that was recently imposed via the initiative process, and a lot of people are pretty outraged about it. They have a $2.8B budget shortfall to fix, and there seems to be no willingness to even talk about cuts to entitlements.

    The Governor just proposed over $600M in tax increases, including a 20% tax on bottled water, which she lumped in with a list "sin taxes".

    Meanwhile, the state's 21,000 workers are enjoying a 5% raise, which seems to be off-limits for cuts.

    I know this has nothing to do with Murray, but I think it shows that anti-Democrat sentiment is building rapidly.

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  4. As a WA resident I have to agree with the other poster.Murray is a horrorshow, a grey-faced apparatchik that personifies all that's wrong with American government today. That said, like a Ted Kennedy or Robert Byrd, she's probably impossible to defeat in this state where a thin but solid majority are clueless, reflexive liberals.

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  5. Yeah, and mysterious little pouches found in school cupboards.

    Somewhat like Franken's haul.

    Just in time voting, ain't technology grand?

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  6. As another WA resident, following the link here via Instapundit, I would like to see Murray replaced. The majority of the population (i.e. King County and Seattle) are knee-jerk Democratic machine voters, however, so Murray really does seem to represent her state. What Seattle (and its oh-so-progressive population) wants, Seattle gets. Is that the sound of a state circling the bathtub drain of bankruptcy due to budget problems exacerbated by entitlements and anti-business ideology?

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  7. A Republican needs to win by an ACORN margin, like Mass' Brown. Otherwise, no dice.

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  8. I'm in Seattle, and a lonely libertarian (small L). I don't see Murray falling either... unfortunately.

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  9. Republicans usually lose in Washington because the local & national Republicans assume they are going to lose anyway and sit on their hands. I think Tim Eyman's initiatives prove that a smaller govt. message can win.

    Don't get discouraged with Rossi's '08 loss, it was a down year for the GOP, plus Gregoire and the Democrats rode on Obama's coat tails with the influx of first time and infrequenet voters.

    Rossi can beat Murray, if only the GOP and base get off their butts and actually do something.

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  10. I too am a Washington resident. It's hard for a republican to win in this state. Dammit. Rossi lost in 2004 to a crooked recount financed if I remember correctly with a windfall from perhaps Kerry's failed presidential campaign.

    It would be great if enough people are angered by the Democrats deliberate flaunting of the people's wishes setting aside the requirements to raise taxes to throw that gal out. I'm embarrassed every time she opens her mouth. It's not that she is a liberal Democrat that makes me cringe, it's that she is a dumb liberal Democrat and they always point out she is from my home state. Cantwell is as liberal as they come but at least she isn't an embarrassement every time she opens her mouth. This state is going into a slow motion death spiral.

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  11. I live in Eastern WA and yes, Murray is quite dim. Her office rarely replies to letters. One staff member actually told me as I tried to explain my position on an issue that she was not there to hear my view - I was supposed to listen to Sen Murray's view. I calmly tried to object and said I hoped in a representative democracy that our representative would listen - she then slammed the phone down. Amazing. Murray is surprisingly dull and dim. I agree with the previous comment that Murray is an embarrassment to the state - while Cantwell, fortunately, is fairly smart.

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  12. People in the western part of Washington State would vote for Joseph Stalin if he was on the Democratic ticket. This is Wobbly Country up here, IWW, the land of one big union. In these parts you get busted for smoking tobacco and elected mayor for smoking weed. The mayor pro-tem of Olympia, the state capital, just got busted for selling reefer, not just huffing it. Eating meat will be illegal before a Republican here gets elected Senator. This State is North San Francisco, a wimpy little Marxist-Swedish backwater that hasn't had a new idea since Eugene Debs gave us one. We have no identity of our own. WA is a pathetic, anti-intellectual hell hole. Kind of like Northern California. Our Senators and Representatives don't have to work, they just call Nancy Pelosi and ask her how to vote. When they talk about redistributing wealth up here, it means Government takes tax money from the producers and split it up among themselves in the form of union perks and government jobs. It is organized crime on a large scale, but no different than Tony Soprano in any way.

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  13. Even I, an independent who thinks Patty Murray is an idiot, (but agree that Cantwell is smart) would be shocked if Murray lost the election. Not only because most people in Washington are Democrats and liberals, but because the Republican party here has a horrible history of trying to foist awful candidates on us. Remember Ellen Craswell for Governor? Dino Rossi is no great shakes, either. He is just the favorite of the RE and construction industries.

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  14. Pierce County, Washington provides an interesting possible different perspective on Murray. In 2008, the Republicans picked up a State Senate seat, a State Representative seat and a County Council seat. This was due primarily to good candidate recruitment.

    Pierce County has become very much a swing county. Republican Rob McKenna carried Pierce County by 19% in his 2008 re-election run for Attorney General against Pierce County Executive John Ladenburg.

    Much depends on candidate recruitment. I believe Rob McKenna could beat Murray.

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  15. Redistributing Knowledge is a great site for WA State ideas and cheer--she's the original Tea Partier!

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  16. Gee....The Senate without its "Moron-in-tennis-shoes?"
    How will we be able to function?

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  17. Defeating Parry Murray should be a priority for fathers' rights.

    http://www.the-spearhead.com/2010/02/20/defeating-patty-murray-should-be-a-priority-for-men/

    She is a horrendous misandrist, who consorts with the very worst of the worst feminists (those that say men should be reduced to 10% of the population.).

    EVERYONE who wants Parry Murray out should bring exposure to the anti-male bigotry she has codified into law.

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  18. With all due respect- One poster above made the lidicrous claim that State workers are getting a 5% PAY RAISE. This is simply not true. Almost all state workers have seen sheduled less than cost of living increases eli inated and in fact face effective pay cuts through proposed furloughs and very substantial increases in medical premiums and copays. Plus 8 thousand state jobs have been eliminated. Literaly hundreds of millions of dollars are being cut in this area. Patty Murray should go- she is a mindless party hack and an embarrassment to the State of Washington- which once produced great Seantors like Scoop Jackson - but if conservative want to win in the long haul they must learn to get thier facts right or they will lose credibility. And credibility is vital for the long haul.

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  19. I live in Washington State, and am A republican. Voted for Rossi twice and all that. That said, Governor Gregoire is doing a decent job (not great by any means) but she is hemmed in by laws and contracts negotiated before the economy went south. One of the first things she did was to cancel some scheduled pay raises, and she got sued by the unions for it.

    Senator Murray, on the other hand, is a reflexive, libtard blowhard who needs to go. I don't mind smart liberals like Gregoire or Senator Cantwell. But the idiot libs need to go. I'm voting for anyone BUT Murray.

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  20. With Boeing, the timber industry, and Microsoft, I'm surprised a Democrat could buy a vote in Washington state.

    In these parts you get busted for smoking tobacco and elected mayor for smoking weed.
    What does this have to do with being a clueless liberal?

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  21. What does this have to do with being a clueless liberal?

    Your question is the answer.

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  22. PATTY MURRAY DOES NOT EVEN DO US THE COURTESY OF READING HER MAIL WITH UNDERSTANDING. I have written at least 20 letters to her office this year, voicing my displeasure over her healthcare voting record. I have repeatedly asked her "please, do not send me your newsletter telling me that you intend to do exactly the opposite of what I have just written to you." Within three minutes I get her newsletter informing me that she and President Obama will take care of me and my family by passing the heath care bill. She does not care what her constituents think. She only reacts like a little puppet to the Democratic party line. It is disgraceful and disgusting, primarily due to the fact it is clear she is not listening to the people of Washington state.

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  23. Sounds just like Oregon, with Portland/Willamette Valley analogous to Seattle/King County.

    I've often wondered why a serious movement to form (a) new state(s), leaving the urban islands of liberal stupidity to fend for themselves, hasn't emerged.

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  24. I think it's a pretty sad state of affairs - as reflected by conservatives nationwide - when they cannot articulate how and why their idea of "responsible" fiscal policy is particularly more salient than that of the Democratic MAJORITY as opposed to their "minority." For some reason "minority" is a term conservatives seem to be confused about as they continue to cite their opinion being that of "America's" or in this case "Washington's."

    Something of note: Cutting taxes != deficit reduction.

    And no amount of backpedaling historical revisionism that conservatives muster can erase the enormous deficits of the last 3 of their Presidential administrations.

    The federal stimulus - of the little that has been appropriated so far - has already begun to work as has been hypocritically witnessed congressional Republicans saying on television that it doesn't while gladly admitting that it does when funds come their way.

    The point of Congress' and Obama's healthcare reform is save this country from the ethical and financial downfall that is coming with our price-gouged health insurance industry. The CBO already issued a report on how the measure put forth can reduce the federal deficit over 10 years.

    My point? Citing "outrageous" and "irresponsible" Democratic spending is really just political cover, a ploy for conservatives to get back into office. Meanwhile the president's fiscal policy has been ranked by objective sources as being ambitious, but ultimately reflecting fiscal responsibility over the long term - which, while it's easy to forget in the fast and dirty game politics, is where it actually counts.

    - Seattle resident

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