Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Independents in the Balance

A recent Quinnipiac poll shows Obama's approval numbers falling in Ohio. Other statewide polls perhaps reveal some quiet shifts happening in Obama's approval rating. SurveyUSA has a number of statewide approval polls up (the most recent being dated from the middle to later part of June). Let's see what some of them are telling us.

In New York, Obama's approval rating seems a healthy 65%, though that number does represent a falling off from a 72% approval rating in May. The approval of independents, though, shows a more extreme decline. In May, Obama enjoyed a 64% approval rating from them. It's now fallen to a 48-48 split.

In New Mexico, Obama is at a 53-44 approval rating (down from 62-35 in May). A clear majority of New Mexico independents now disapprove of his performance on the job.

The other state polls, in places like Minnesota, Missouri (where Obama's approval has fallen to 51%), Oregon, and Virginia, tell a similar story for the most part: a falling approval rating for Obama with majorities or pluralities of independents disapproving. (The numbers are even worse for him in a deep "red" state like Alabama.) The loss of independents, particularly in swingier states, could be a sign of increasing public skepticism about the Obama administration's policies, one with possible electoral consequences.

UPDATE: This new PPP poll shows Obama at 38-52 among independents in Virginia; his overall approval rating is at 48-46. PPP has more results for independent voters in various states here; the independent approval numbers are all below 50%, and, for many states and the nation as a whole, Obama has more independents disapproving than approving.

UPDATE (x2): Welcome Hot Air and Michael Barone and Ace and Campaign Spot readers! Those of you with a taste for polling might engjoy this health-care polling analysis. Some other goodies include this essay on Mark Antony's political rhetoric and its relevance for today and this piece on why the political right should care about economic inequality.

2 comments:

  1. were more likely to respond like Democrats than Republicans. Now they are more likely to respond like DemocraMichael Barone notes that when GWB was in the White House, Independants ts. But there is a big difference. When GWB was president, all the major media were reviling, scorning, mocking etc. him, so the Independants were going along with the crowd. Now, the media is still slobbering over Obama, but the Independants are truly going their own way, thinking for themselves and not just following the trend. Now they are looking at what is happening and no matter what the talking heads on the tube say, they don't like what they see. A welcome new development for our country and a return to the common sense that made us great.

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  2. Michael Barone notes that when GWB was in the White House, Independants were more likely to respond like Democrats than Republicans, now they are more likely to respond like Republicans. But there is a big difference. When GWB was president, all the major media were reviling, scorning, mocking etc. him, so the Independants were going along with the crowd. Now, the media is still slobbering over Obama, but the Independants are truly going their own way, thinking for themselves and not just following the trend. Now they are looking at what is happening and no matter what the talking heads on the tube say, they don't like what they see. A welcome new development for our country and a return to the common sense that made us great.
    Sorry my first comment got screwed up somehow, so I'm correcting it. Thanks for your article

    ReplyDelete