Big Donors Open Up Wallets for Rhode Island Democrats

Sheldon Whitehouse was swept into office in the Democratic "wave" year of 2006, defeating center-left Republican Lincoln Chafee (now Rhode Island's governor).  However, an anti-incumbent sentiment seems to be growing in that state.  RI-01 incumbent David Cicilline (D) is in real danger of losing his seat, either to a primary challenge by a fellow Democrat or to his Republican challenger.  RI-01 seems one of the seats in New England most likely to flip.

Meanwhile, Whitehouse may yet be vulnerable to his Republican challenger, Barry Hinckley.  A poll taken at the end of February (the latest poll I could find) showed Whitehouse getting 50% to 28% for Hinckley.  The size of that margin should not obscure the fact that a sitting senator was barely able to crack 50% against a relative political unknown.  Whitehouse's approval rating in that poll would be fairly grim for any incumbent: 38% approval with 53% disapproval.  Clearly, Rhode Island voters are not entirely happy with the Democratic incumbent.

Whitehouse looks to use a spending advantage to offset the state mood.  According to public campaign finance records, he has currently raised about $4.2 million, about four times the amount that Hinckley has raised (which is about $1 million).  However, much of this money comes from interest groups and large donors.  Nearly 30% of Whitehouse's contributions (about $1.2 million) come from PACs.  These PACs include leadership PACs set up by fellow Democrat office-holders, union-financed PACs, business-sector PACs, and ideological PACs.  Whitehouse has raked in millions in big-donor contributions (contributions over $200).

Where Whitehouse has lagged, however, is in small donors.  Currently, he has only raised about $168,000 in small donations from individual donors, so about 4% of his fundraising has come from small donors.  Whitehouse seems to be trying to make the most of the advantages of incumbency, collecting sums from big-ticket donors and interest groups.  But he hasn't exactly caught fire with the grassroots.

According to a Hinckley spokesman, about 60% of the Hinckley campaign's donations come from small donors.  Campaign finance records suggest that about 1% of Hinckley's total haul comes from PACs.

In 2006, Lincoln Chafee drew heavily from PAC money and other vested interests, while then-challenger Whitehouse took only about 11% of his funds from PACs.  Now that Whitehouse occupies a Senate seat, he's the one trying to insulate himself with PAC money.

For his part, Cicilline is also drawing on big money to try to make it through a rough election.  Nearly 25% of his fundraising comes from PACs, and only 7% comes from small donors.

Rhode Island Democrats seem to hope that they can paper over electoral dark clouds with ample helpings of green.

Trouble for Democrats in RI-01

WPRI in Providence, Rhode Island has released a poll about first-term Democratic congressman David Cicilline. The former mayor of Providence had a six-point win over Republican John Loughlin in 2010, but this new poll suggests that, if the election were held today, the results would be quite different:

The new survey of 300 registered voters in Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District shows Cicilline's 2010 opponent, former state Rep. John Loughlin, would defeat him 47 percent to 35 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

Another Republican, former State Police Col. Brendan Doherty, would beat Cicilline 46 percent to 33 percent, with 20 percent undecided, the poll reveals.

Loughlin wins big with Republicans and Independents in this poll. Cicilline's approval rating is stuck in the low 30s; over 57% of those polled have somewhat or very negative feelings for him. Cicilline's poll numbers have in part suffered due to the current fiscal state of Providence, for which a number of voters blame him.

Those over 60 have the most negative feelings toward Cicilline, and it looks like he may attempt to try to win some of them over by emphasizing his support of Medicare and Social Security.

In 2010, Cicilline barely broke the 50% mark, indicating limits to his support. In a district where only a little over 40% of voters think that Barack Obama is doing a good or excellent job, this could be one Democrat in trouble for 2012.