Smith Gains in Pennsylvania

Bob Casey  won a decisive Senate victory against Rick Santorum in 2006, and many analysts had assumed that he would have a fairly easy path to reelection against Republican Tom Smith in 2012.

But some recent polling has suggested that Casey might have a slightly harder road ahead in his reelection challenge.  The latest Philadelphia Inquirer poll has Casey with a 10-point lead (48-38), which is still pretty solid.  But an Inquirer poll in August gave him nearly a 20-point lead.  And Casey has fallen below the 50% margin.

Indeed, no recent poll has given Casey over 50%.  And some other recent polls have this race down to single digits.

A continued strong performance by Romney could help push Smith over the top.