Even as Gallup shows Obama leading Romney 49-44 among registered voters, Jim Hoft reminds us that a September 1980 poll showed Carter leading Reagan by 4 points. Obviously, Reagan ended up defeating Carter decisively.
But there's no reason for Republicans to get overconfident. The poll Hoft cites shows Carter garnering only 44% of the vote (compared to 40% for Reagan), and, throughout most of the Gallup polling season, Carter was polling around 40 or under. One poll in the summer had Carter down to 29%. Obama has not polled anywhere near 40%; the Real Clear Politics polling average has him never dipping below 45% over the past year.
Yes, Obama has enjoyed a slight bounce, and, yes, those bounces often fade, and, yes, Obama is very vulnerable. But Republicans shouldn't lull themselves into expecting an easy blowout, either.