Thursday, February 2, 2012

CBO Then and Now

Zero Hedge includes a helpful link to the ten-year report issued by the CBO back in early 2001.  Eleven years ago, the CBO predicted that the US would have an improving debt burden with consistent surpluses and relatively solid economic growth.  The CBO got its projection on mandatory spending relatively right: it estimated that mandatory spending would be $1.9 trillion in 2011, when it ended up being $2 trillion.

However, this report was before the Bush tax-cuts passed, before 9/11 (and the resulting conflicts), and before a decade of economic disappointment.  The CBO in 2001 projected an average real GDP growth of 3.1% a year during the decade after 2001; GDP growth did not even come close to that.

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